Jake | Tuesday 22nd March 2011 | Formula 1

With the Australian Grand Prix this weekend, Formula 1 pre-season testing seems like a distant memory now. That’s still all we have to go on though, as far as form for 2011 goes.

But that’s a lot more than there was to go on in January, when I placed my little wagers for the season ahead. I said I’d keep an eye on how the odds move throughout the year, so what’s changed?

03 Jan 22 Mar
Sebastian Vettel 3/1 12/5
Mark Webber 12/1 9/1
Fernando Alonso 7/2 11/4
Felipe Massa 30/1 26/1
Lewis Hamilton 4/1 8/1
Jenson Button 14/1 15/1
Nico Rosberg 14/1 16/1
Michael Schumacher 13/1 15/1
Robert Kubica 29/1
Nick Heidfeld 84/1

Sebastian Vettel remains the favourite, marginally ahead of Fernando Alonso, and their odds have shortened slightly, both now better than 3/1. Red Bull Racing looked like the pick of the cars in testing, with Ferrari not far behind, so that seems reasonable.

Their team mates are significantly less fancied. Mark Webber’s odds have shortened, but he’s still way back at 9/1. Felipe Massa – well, his odds can only continue to get better.

The biggest change in odds reflects possibly the biggest story of testing: McLaren being off the pace of Red Bull and Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton wasn’t far behind Vettel and Alonso back in January, but his odds have plummeted to 8/1. It’s remarkable that even in a clearly less competitive car, he’s still more fancied than Webber.

The German pair at Mercedes remain next down the pecking order, joining the other McLaren of Jenson Button around the 15/1 mark.

As in January, the final entry before you reach the realms of hundreds-to-one is a Renault. It was Robert Kubica back then at 29/1, now it’s Nick Heidfeld at 84/1 – a difference that nicely reflects their relative talents, I’d say.

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