Happy New Year!

Last year, as Formula 1 testing began, I decided to put money on the outcome of the championship. Sebastian Vettel was my top choice, and that came off quite nicely. My other punts were on Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa – which in the latter case particularly was a spectacularly bad shout.

So I’ve done the same this year, albeit even earlier in the year. I’m utterly unencumbered by the dubious ‘facts’ which come out of testing, so now is the perfect time. Maybe.

The odds make interesting reading. Marginal favourite is Sebastian Vettel, at 3/1, which is simply too obvious a prediction to make for my liking. But I rather fancy his team-mate, Mark Webber – figuratively speaking. He showed in 2010 that he’s bloody close to Vettel – possibly closer than Red Bull Racing would like. Maybe he would have been even closer in the final standings, had it not been for his shoulder injury late in the season, which he didn’t tell the team about, but came to light after the publishing of Webber’s book well after the final race. He’s getting close to retirement, but clearly still has a lot in him, and it would be a fantastic story for him to retire as world champion. I want it to happen. The current odds are 12/1 – which sound mighty attractive to me.

The close second favourite is Fernando Alonso, at 7/2, and he’s my other pick. Now firmly established as Ferrari’s number one driver, if he gets a car capable of challenging for the championship, it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping him. I don’t want it to happen, but I have a nasty feeling it just might.

Lewis Hamilton is third favourite at 4/1, while Jenson Button is way back at 14/1 – an unrealistic disparity, if you ask me. Mercedes is the other moderately fancied team, with Nico Rosberg at 14/1, and Michael Schumacher marginally ahead at 13/1 – based presumably on an optimistic assumption that he’ll return to form, rather than his performance relative to Rosberg in 2010.

There’s little faith that Felipe Massa will recover his form of 2008, at 30/1. Probably fair enough. Even the Renault of Robert Kubica is ahead of him at 29/1.

I’ll try to keep an eye on how the odds jump around as the season approaches, and then pans out. A lot, is my guess.