We’re a good four races into the Formula 1 season now, so it seems like a good time to have an update on the odds for the driver’s championship. The last update was just before the start of the season, so let’s see what’s changed.
|
03 Jan |
22 Mar |
19 May |
| Sebastian Vettel |
3/1 |
12/5 |
2/5 |
| Mark Webber |
12/1 |
9/1 |
17/1 |
| Fernando Alonso |
7/2 |
11/4 |
9/1 |
| Felipe Massa |
30/1 |
26/1 |
360/1 |
| Lewis Hamilton |
4/1 |
8/1 |
8/1 |
| Jenson Button |
14/1 |
15/1 |
49/1 |
| Nico Rosberg |
14/1 |
16/1 |
79/1 |
| Michael Schumacher |
13/1 |
15/1 |
450/1 |
In short: a lot. Sebastian Vettel has always been the favourite, but now overwhelmingly so, at 2/5. Given that he’s won three of the first four races, and has a points lead of well over a race win, that’s not surprising.
The only other man who’s odds haven’t worsened is Lewis Hamilton, who becomes the second favourite at 8/1. He’s the only other race winner, and sits second in the standings, so fair enough.
Fernando Alonso is close behind, at 9/1, though that’s a mighty drop from being a close second favourite pre-season. He’s fifth in the standings, but if anyone can bring it back from the brink, then it’s Alonso – as he nearly proved last season.
Which means that the drivers third and fourth in the championship are less fancied than Alonso. Mark Webber remains fourth favourite, but quite a way behind at 17/1. Jenson Button has fallen right back to 49/1, despite being just 13 points behind Hamilton. The problem for both is simple: they’re not beating their team mates, and if they don’t beat their team mates, they’re not going to win the championship.
The same goes at Mercedes, where finally Nico Rosberg has better odds than Michael Schumacher. They’ve both fallen back, as the competitiveness of their car has become clear, but to differing degrees: Rosberg to 79/1, Schumacher off a cliff to 450/1. A similar fate has befallen Felipe Massa, now at 360/1.
