It’s not terribly likely that this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix will decide the Formula 1 drivers’ championship. With the standings as they are after Korea, Fernando Alonso is the only man who could do it. Let’s have a look at the permutations.

The simplest is if Alonso wins. In that case, it’s down to Mark Webber: finishing at least 4th would keep the gap below the crucial 25 points for a win, with one race to go.

Beyond that, it gets much tougher for Alonso to seal the championship in Brazil.

If Alonso finishes 2nd, and Webber 8th, then the gap would be exactly 25 points. In that case, Alonso would have done just enough: a win for Webber in Abu Dhabi and a no-score for Alonso would leave them level on points, and also level on number of wins, 2nds and 3rds, Alonso taking the title on number of 4th place finishes.

So Webber would have to finish 7th to stay in with a chance. Alternatively, Lewis Hamilton finishing at least 3rd, or Sebastian Vettel winning, would leave the championship to be decided in Abu Dhabi.

If Alonso finishes 3rd in Brazil, a 10th place finish would leave Webber with a 25 point deficit. But this time, if they were equal after Abu Dhabi, Webber would be the victor on number of 2nd place finishes. So any points would keep Webber in contention; Hamilton would need at least 4th place to keep in the fight, and Vettel would need to be on the podium.

If Alonso isn’t on the podium in Brazil, then the title definitely goes down to the wire in Abu Dhabi. So this is what it comes down to:

Any corrections welcome!