Pastor Maldonado! How the hell did I miss him when I was looking for someone who might spring a surprise at the Monaco Grand Prix earlier this week? I am quite the idiot.

Success!

His record in the principality speaks for itself. In four seasons of GP2, 2007-2010, he featured on the podium every year, taking two wins and two second places from seven races. The year before that, in 2006, he took victory in the Formula Renault 3.5 race. Pretty good, eh?

Let’s go on board with him in 2008:

Formula 1: Thursday practice

That neatly explains why he finished FP1 – his first session on the streets of Monte Carlo in a Formula 1 car – in 7th place. A full six places ahead of his vastly more experienced team mate.

But what happened in FP2? All he could manage was 15th – this time a couple of places behind Barrichello. The team was trying new parts, so that may have been part of it. But Maldonado hardly has an unblemished record in Monaco.

Not so good

The 2005 Formula Renault 3.5 race would have to be the low point: Maldonado failed to slow down under yellow flags at the scene of an accident, and ran into a marshal. He was banned for four races.

He’s not immune to cases of ambition outweighing talent either: here’s his unspectacular crash during qualifying for the GP2 race last year on YouTube. He picked up a drive through penalty in the sprint race for a jump start too. And in 2008 he crashed out of the sprint race after a collision with Karun Chandhok.

Formula 1: qualifying and the race

What can we expect from Maldonado on Saturday and Sunday then? Clearly it could go either way, but I’ve got hopeful fingers crossed.

Anyway, he’s looking like a better bet for a good result than my previous picks. Trulli was slower than Kovalainen in both of Thursday’s sessions, in 18th and 19th. Meanwhile Heidfeld is looking anonymously acceptable, with 11th and 10th.