Ah, the Monaco Grand Prix. Where the driver really makes a difference, and the machinery temporarily takes a bit of a back seat – if that’s not too mangled a metaphor.

For that reason, Robert Kubica will be especially sorely missed this weekend. Everyone was desperate to see what he could do in the promising Renault generally this season, but Monaco is where he could have shined brightest.

Fingers crossed he manages to get back behind the wheel before the season is out, even if only for a Friday practice session.

Back to the here and now though: who are we left with to spring a surprise around the streets of the principality?

The front-runners

It’s hard to imagine the victory not going to one of ‘the five’ – Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Button or Alonso.

Of them, only Sebastian Vettel hasn’t won in Monaco. So curiously, it would almost be a surprise if he makes it five wins in six races.

But it wouldn’t be a shock to see any one of them on the top step of the podium come Sunday afternoon.

The just behinds

Felipe Massa has been on the Monaco podium twice, but has never won there, and a sudden flash of brilliance from the Brazilian doesn’t look hugely likely. A win for him would be a surprise. And a delight.

What about Mercedes? They’ve got the next best car, but does either driver have it in them to pull something out of the bag? Michael Schumacher is a five-time winner, but 12th place last year was hardly the highlight of his season. And Monaco hasn’t been Nico Rosberg’s most successful stomping ground. Probably not, then.

And Renault? The car was on the podium last year thanks to Robert Kubica, and if anything it looks stronger this year. Nick Heidfeld has been on the podium at Monaco before – a 2nd for Williams in 2005 – and has looked the stronger of the team’s current line-up of late. Maybe the softly spoken German is our best bet for an upset.

And the rest

I think it’s worth watching for a Team Lotus surprise. Not a win, obviously, but beating some of the established teams – and maybe, just maybe, some points? It seems to be the way they’re headed, and Monaco should level the playing field a little.

Heikki Kovalainen has tended to have a slight edge over his team mate, but it’s Jarno Trulli who has the better record here: he won the race for Renault in 2004. I’m looking forward to seeing if one of them can summon up a bit of Monaco magic on Sunday.

Photo Credit: Jochen Wolters, flickr