What to make of Cal Crutchlow signing for Ducati? He must believe it to be the best decision, but some fans aren’t so keen. I think a consideration of probabilities helps here.

Podiums

What we – by which I mean British MotoGP fans – want is a British rider at the front. We’ve got that this year, with Crutchlow having bagged four podiums and a pole position so far. It’s not unreasonable to expect more of the same for the rest of the season – and indeed in 2014 had he stayed on the Tech 3 Yamaha.

By contrast, Ducati have had no podiums this year, and a only four in the past two seasons.

I think this is what British fans see: the probability of Crutchlow fighting at the front and grabbing a handful podium is greater at Tech 3 than at Ducati. And it’s a fair point, from a spectator’s point of view; the thought of Crutchlow languishing mid-pack on a Ducati is not exactly inspiring.

Race Wins

But no-one dreams of podiums; racers race to win. This is where it gets tricky.

The last time any satellite bike won a race was 2006, when the Gresini Honda was victorious with both Marco Melandri and Toni Elias.

Ducati, meanwhile, last won a race in 2010 – three times, thanks to Casey Stoner of course. Even excluding Stoner as a special case, it was still more recent than 2006 – Loris Capirossi took a win in 2007.

So where is Crutchlow more likely to take his first race win? It’s close. At Tech 3, on a satellite bike, he’ll struggle without something to level the playing field – wet weather or problems for the factory bikes; at Ducati he’ll need them to produce a better bike, or just ‘do a Stoner’ and somehow ride the heck out of it.

World Championships

Race wins aren’t the end of it though: it’s all about being World Champion.

Here it gets a bit easier: satellite bikes don’t win championships. Never in the MotoGP era, and not in recent history before that – if ever. On the other side, Casey Stoner took his Ducati to the world title in 2007.

So undoubtedly Crutchlow stands a better chance of becoming world champion at Ducati than Tech 3. It might still be a long shot, but it’s better than the near as damn it zero chance at Tech 3.

The one certainty

This is all probabilities, chances and likelihoods. There only one certainty, and that’s that Crutchlow will earn more at Ducati. A racer’s career is relatively short, and opportunities are few and far between, so it’s only right that money be a factor.

If he’d stayed at Tech 3, Crutchlow would have had a very good chance of running at the front next year. In exchange for passing up that opportunity, he’s getting a factory bike which, if Ducati get their act together or Crutchlow can ‘do a Stoner’, could give him a chance at the world title – and the certainty of more money. Seems like a fair deal to me.

Photo Credits
Cal Crutchlow: Corentin Foucaut – Flickr – Some rights reserved
Casey Stoner: Thomas Helbig – Flickr – Some rights reserved