Testing is well under way now, bafflingly fascinating large swathes of the motorsport population. But it’s also my prompt to place my bets for the season ahead. On a couple of Aussies, as it turns out.

Formula 1

Of course Sebastian Vettel is the favourite. Who else? At 5/4 though, I’m not interested. Like most, I’m by no means convinced that he’s going to run away with it this year. No, like last year, I’m going to go for his team-mate Mark Webber. You know what they say: once bitten, twice… bitten. At 18/1, it’s safe to say that I’m going out on a limb. Again.

But there’s a modicum of logic here: it’s in qualifying that Vettel trounced Webber last year, thanks to his unerring knack of making the new, harder Pirelli tyres submit to his wily ways. This season, with softer tyres, the landscape should look a little more like 2010, when Webber was in the title fight until the final race. Maybe.

I’m taking it as given that the RB8 will be the pick of the field. No guarantee there, mind: separating the Red Bull team-mates are Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso (9/2), and the McLarens of Lewis Hamilton (6/1) and Jenson Button (10/1). Intriguingly, after those five it’s Nico Rosberg, followed jointly by Kimi Raikkonen and Michael Schumacher, and Felipe Massa.

MotoGP

I expected the MotoGP odds to be a little closer than Formula 1, but no. It’s curious: there’s a complete change in regulations, so there’s more chance of a shake-up in the order than usual. Yet still 2011 champion Casey Stoner is a clear favourite at virtually 1/1. But I’m still going to go for him, because he’s a class act and, well, I think he’ll take the title.

I assumed that blind faith in The Doctor would lead to inappropriately good odds on Valentino Rossi, but no, he’s fourth favourite at 7/1. The one rider I really wouldn’t put any money on is Stoner’s team-mate, Dani Pedrosa, who is third favourite at 11/2. He’s arguably rather fragile, and unarguably rather small, which is only going to be more of a disadvantage this year with the bigger bikes. That leaves Jorge Lorenzo as second favourite at about 3/1, who on recent form does seem likely to be Stoner’s biggest threat.