Valentino Rossi missed races after his crash, and he’s not back up to full fitness. But after finishing 4th last week in Germany, it’s tempting to think that maybe, just maybe, he could still have a go at the MotoGP title.

We’re eight races down, with ten to go. Jorge Lorenzo has 185 points and a very nice championship lead; Rossi is 6th with 74 points. That’s a 111 point deficit, so if Rossi can score 12 points per race more than Lorenzo, then that would do the job.

It’s an average, and if Lorenzo has a couple of non-finishes, then obviously it would be a very different picture. And there are other riders in with a chance. But 12 points per race is illustrative of the magnitude of the task. So what does that look like? This:

With Rossi winning, Lorenzo couldn’t finish better than 4th. And 4th is the worst position Rossi could finish, with Lorenzo 15th or lower. In short: 12 points per race is an awful lot.