I’ve been trying to imagine what I’d do if I were Jenson Button, faced with the choice of staying with what is now Mercedes Grand Prix, or moving to McLaren.

This may all be academic, because The Guardian is reporting that the McLaren deal is basically done. But I’ll carry on regardless.

I’m not sure that I agree with everyone in the world in thinking that he should definitely stay where he is. It depends what he wants.

As Button knows better than anyone, to win the world championship you need a fair bit of luck: to be in the right car at the right time. After years of definitely not, he was lucky enough to be in 2009, and won the championship. He’s done that.

So now he has to gamble. What’s the worst that can happen?

I’d be confident that the McLaren will be a competitive car, and if not, then as we saw this year, it would probably become competitive. Then there’s the matter of Lewis Hamilton. If Button can beat him, then that would be fantastic. If not, Button would probably win a race or two over the course of the season nonetheless, and be paid more than he would by Mercedes. He might lose a little reputation, but then Button’s reputation has always suffered a bit. And no-one can take away his 2009 title.

Mercedes, on the other hand, I can well imagine being a midfield team next year. If they are at the sharp end though, Button would almost certainly fare better against Nico Rosberg than Hamilton.

In short: championships are hard to come by, so maybe it’s better to go where you think you’ve the best chance of winning some races. And that’s McLaren, to my mind.